Season 3 Championship, what do you think?

Man, you just never know. Mad Fast is a total dud on my track...I've been buying them just to harvest the engines out of them for customs!

I just go with my gut mostly...or go with the one I want to win. Guess that is why I'm back in 12th place!

But what's your strategy? I mean, you don't have to give away your secrets or anything but what's your hunch going into this thing?

My strategy is to have my picks match yours exactly, so that I can win the championship since I haven't been doing well lately. I lost the championship last year in the final race, but things were much closer.

Don't copy my picks! I suck at my own game. Getting to 2nd place has been big wins on some but a lot of low points on most. I guess it all evens out in the end. BTW, if I end up winning I will be very bummed. If that happens, I vow to sit out of future seasons.

I made my picks based solely upon the cars rating. This hasn't worked very well for me yet but its the only system I have. I am learning that the rating, weight, and shape don't really mean a whole lot in this game. Rating does carry a little but will only tell you if the car is capable of winning. But seeing that these cars have all won before, they might as well all be back at 1200. In my own trials, I am finding that with close matches, the difference can be whether the car bumps or rides the rail more than the other. Or even if the wheel has gotten stuck on the axle and is not freely spinning. I've also found that in testing identical cars, (3 identical FTE triumphs) 1 of them is always faster than the others. No rhyme or reason there.

That is true, each car is different regardless if it's the same. Some cars get faster with more use, some slower. I've had three of the same car like yourself, all 3 raced differently. trials and error...and some luck finds the fast ones! FTE's sure help as well it seems.

Yes, this isn't exactly scientific, it's just fun. There is some science behind it all but there are a lot of variables going into each race and car.

I can tell you that in cases where I have duplicates/variants of the same car, I do race them all against each other to find the fastest one of the variants. I also do a little QC on all the new cars I add to the league, making sure the wheels spin free without rubbing the chassis or stuff like that. I've bought a few cars only to find they have some bent axle or something and have had to re-buy them.

The rating system works but keep in mind the ratings changes are dependent on the rating of the other car they were racing, which also means it depends on how many races they've raced and who they've raced.

So if there's a new car that hasn't raced a lot and has a low-ish rating, like a 1216 or something, that doesn't mean it can't beat a higher rated car of 1300 or more with lots of races...there just hasn't been much history for a car so it's a gamble...and that's where knowing weight, wheelbase and other *visual* things can make a difference. Picking a car that "looks fast" can work.

If you look at the cars that have been racing for a while, you'll see that losing and winning are consistent over time. I guarantee you that the 1940 Ford won't be out running the Triumph any time soon. The more races and data collecting you do the more solid information you'll have...that's part of what we're doing here too. Just racing the same cars over-and-over so we can get a lot of data.

But you're right, there's a lot of chance in this game but that's half the fun and that's just like anything else. Nothing maintains 100% repeatability. The better ranked football team can still lose the super bowl...it just depends on what happens on that day. All you can do is place your bet on what you think is the safest pick......or perhaps go with the upset. And that's the fun....plus it's all Hot Wheels

The rating system works but keep in mind the ratings changes are dependent on the rating of the other car they were racing, which also means it depends on how many races they've raced and who they've raced.

So if there's a new car that hasn't raced a lot and has a low-ish rating, like a 1216 or something, that doesn't mean it can't beat a higher rated car of 1300 or more with lots of races...there just hasn't been much history for a car so it's a gamble...

Double Elimination would help with this. I did some testing this last weekend with this format and though the outcome was still the same, I was able to get better ratings from all the cars thru the additional races. In a couple cases one of the cars that would have immediately been eliminated came back to race for the overall win.

Oh another thing. Im really having a blast with this. I cant remember the last time I had so much fun with a Christmas present. My wife is baffled at the amnt of time my son and I are spending doing this.

My QC makes sure the wheels spin freely and the axles are otherwise straight. I don't really do any qualifying trips down the track, I guess I kind of consider that peaking...I like surprises too. But you do bring up a good point of race recaps, which is something I hope to do a much better job of next season. Obviously you guys aren't seeing the race so all you know is who wins and who loses. Knowing *how* someone lost - by a little, by a lot, etc. - is important so I'm trying to think up a good method for doing that while still keeping things easy and fun. Lap time is another thing I'm interested in but also weary of doing because it might take too much of the guess out of it.

And you're right with the DE tournaments...the more races you do the more accurate races are. Doubles would create more races and thus more data, but I also have to keep in mind my time running and managing the races. The first season of the Fantasy League was a lot different than it is now and I ended up doing 60+ races each weekend and it was murder. Doing two, 16-car brackets a week plus league records and stuff carves out a good chunk of time.

Changed my picks again... I think I have it now.

And that's all she wrote! The Ferrari F40 comes out on top. Two seasons, two Ferraris.
http://www.redlinederby.com/2011/01/ferrari-wins-again/

I apologize for the video, it's not as good as I had hoped. I didn't get a good angle on things. I raced from my living room into my kitchen because it was too cold out in the patio room where I normally race...there wasn't much space.

Congrats to Iowa for winning and being rather dominate all season. His picks were spot on and for his efforts has been awarded the coveted golden license plate

So much for applying logic to my picks. I was almost sure I had the left half of the bracket nailed down. Oh well. Maybe I should let my 4yo do the next round of picks.